THE MULTIPOLARITY LETTER

THE MULTIPOLARITY LETTER

How to predict a Recession?

The inconvenient truth about the yield curve and a other leading indicators

Alexandre Kateb's avatar
Alexandre Kateb
Sep 08, 2023
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There is a popular belief among market professionals that recessions are predicted by an inversion of the yield curve. The truth is the inversion of the yield curve is more an indicator of cyclical peaks than of recessions, as can be seen on the first chart below. In fact, recessions usually happen 12 to 24 months following the bottoming out of the yiel…

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